Survivability Prognosis for Lung Cancer Patients at Different Severity Stages by a Risk Factor-Based Bayesian Network Modeling

J Med Syst. 2020 Feb 10;44(3):65. doi: 10.1007/s10916-020-1537-5.

Abstract

Lung cancer is a major reason of mortalities. Estimating the survivability for this disease has become a key issue to families, hospitals, and countries. A conditional Gaussian Bayesian network model was presented in this study. This model considered 15 risk factors to predict the survivability of a lung cancer patient at 4 severity stages. We surveyed 1075 patients. The presented model is constructed by using the demographic, diagnosed-based, and prior-utilization variables. The proposed model for the survivability prognosis at different four stages performed R2 of 93.57%, 86.83%, 67.22%, and 52.94%, respectively. The model predicted the lung cancer survivability with high accuracy compared with the reported models. Our model also shows that it reached the ceiling of an ideal Bayesian network.

Keywords: Bayesian network; Lung cancer; Risk adjustment factor; Survivability.

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Cancer Survivors / statistics & numerical data*
  • Databases, Factual / statistics & numerical data
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Lung Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Male
  • Models, Biological
  • Prognosis
  • Severity of Illness Index*
  • Survival Analysis