Assessment of climate change impact on the malaria vector Anopheles hyrcanus, West Nile disease, and incidence of melanoma in the Vojvodina Province (Serbia) using data from a regional climate model

PLoS One. 2020 Jan 15;15(1):e0227679. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0227679. eCollection 2020.

Abstract

Motivated by the One Health paradigm, we found the expected changes in temperature and UV radiation (UVR) to be a common trigger for enhancing the risk that viruses, vectors, and diseases pose to human and animal health. We compared data from the mosquito field collections and medical studies with regional climate model projections to examine the impact of climate change on the spreading of one malaria vector, the circulation of West Nile virus (WNV), and the incidence of melanoma. We analysed data obtained from ten selected years of standardised mosquito vector sampling with 219 unique location-year combinations, and 10 years of melanoma incidence. Trends in the observed data were compared to the climatic variables obtained by the coupled regional Eta Belgrade University and Princeton Ocean Model for the period 1961-2015 using the A1B scenario, and the expected changes up to 2030 were presented. Spreading and relative abundance of Anopheles hyrcanus was positively correlated with the trend of the mean annual temperature. We anticipated a nearly twofold increase in the number of invaded sites up to 2030. The frequency of WNV detections in Culex pipiens was significantly correlated to overwintering temperature averages and seasonal relative humidity at the sampling sites. Regression model projects a twofold increase in the incidence of WNV positive Cx. pipiens for a rise of 0.5°C in overwintering TOctober-April temperatures. The projected increase of 56% in the number of days with Tmax ≥ 30°C (Hot Days-HD) and UVR doses (up to 1.2%) corresponds to an increasing trend in melanoma incidence. Simulations of the Pannonian countries climate anticipate warmer and drier conditions with possible dominance of temperature and number of HD over other ecological factors. These signal the importance of monitoring the changes to the preparedness of mitigating the risk of vector-borne diseases and melanoma.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Anopheles / metabolism
  • Anopheles / pathogenicity
  • Climate Change*
  • Culex / virology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Insect Vectors / virology
  • Malaria / epidemiology*
  • Melanoma / epidemiology*
  • Mosquito Vectors / virology
  • Seasons
  • Serbia / epidemiology
  • Temperature
  • West Nile Fever / epidemiology*
  • West Nile virus
  • Yugoslavia / epidemiology

Grants and funding

This paper was realised as a part of the projects "Studying climate change and its influence on the environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation" (III43007 - DTM, DP, IHC, VDj, ENĐ, IA, GM, AIĆ) and TR31084 (DP, TP, AIĆ) financed by the Ministry of Education and Science, Republic of Serbia (http://www.mpn.gov.rs/). Historical data for mosquito vectors are the outputs of projects supported by the Veterinary Directorate, Ministry of Agriculture and Environment Protection, Republic of Serbia (http://www.minpolj.gov.rs/), and Provincial Secretariat for Science and Technological Development, the Autonomous Province of Vojvodina, project no. 114-451-2142/2011 (DP, TP, IHC, AIĆ - http://apv-visokoobrazovanje.vojvodina.gov.rs/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. MP is affiliated to Avia-GIS NV, which did not play a role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. Role of Funders Avia-GIS NV provided support in the form of salaries for author (MP) but did not have any additional role in the study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. The specific roles of the author (MP) are articulated in the ‘author contributions’ section.