Development of the National Early Warning Score-Calcium Model for Predicting Adverse Outcomes in Patients With Acute Pancreatitis

Abstract

Introduction: This study aimed to develop a new model on the basis of the National Early Warning Score to predict intensive care unit admission and the mortality of patients with acute pancreatitis.

Methods: Patients diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department were enrolled. The values of the National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis in predicting intensive care unit admission and mortality of patients with acute pancreatitis were evaluated.

Results: A total of 379 patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled; 77 patients (20.3%) were admitted to the intensive care unit and 14 (3.7%) died. The National Early Warning Score and calcium level were identified as independent risk factors of intensive care unit admission. Serum calcium exhibited a moderate correlation with National Early Warning Score (r = -0.46; P < 0.001), Modified Early Warning Score (r = -0.37; P < 0.001), and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (r = -0.39; P < 0.001). A new model called National Early Warning Score-calcium was developed by combining National Early Warning Score and calcium blood test result, which had larger areas under the curve for predicting intensive care unit admission and mortality than the other 3 scoring systems.

Discussion: A new model developed by combining National Early Warning Score and calcium exhibited better value in predicting the prognosis of acute pancreatitis than the models involving National Early Warning Score, Modified Early Warning Score, and Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis alone.

Keywords: Bedside Index of Severity in Acute Pancreatitis; Modified Early Warning Score; National Early Warning Score; Pancreatitis; Predictive model.