Hip fracture mortality: Predictive models

Abstract

The preoperative estimation of the risk of mortality after a hip fracture is very useful to plan time of surgery and perioperative care, inform patients and families about the prognosis and allows comparisons between different units. Different models have been developed to stratify mortality risk, but they show heterogeneity in terms of type of population and variables included, monitoring the time and statistical methods used, which makes it difficult to establish comparisons between them. The vast majority of them are awaiting external validation in populations different from those in which they were originally proposed. So far, the Nottingham Hip Fracture Score (NHFS) and the Orthopaedic Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and Morbidity (O-POSSUM) are the most commonly used models. The NHFS is simpler and faster to apply, and by not including intraoperative variables can be used at the time of admission.

Keywords: Factores de riesgo; Fractura de cadera; Hip fracture; Modelos predictivos; Mortalidad; Mortality; Predictive models; Prognosis; Pronóstico; Risk factors.