Cruzain, a cysteine protease of Trypanosoma cruzi, is a validated target for the treatment of Chagas disease. Due to its high similarity in three-dimensional structure with human cathepsins and their sequence identity above 70% in the active site regions, identifying potent but selective cruzain inhibitors with low side effects on the host organism represents a significant challenge. Here a panel of nitrile ligands with varying potencies against cathepsin K, cathepsin L and cruzain, are studied by molecular dynamics simulations as both non-covalent and covalent complexes. Principal component analysis (PCA), identifies and quantifies patterns of ligand-induced conformational selection that enable the construction of a decision tree which can predict with high confidence a low-nanomolar inhibitor of each of three proteins, and determine the selectivity for one against others.