Differences in the responses of flow and nutrient load to isolated and coupled future climate and land use changes

Abstract

Understanding the differences in the responses of river hydrology and water quality to climate and land use changes is particularly crucial for the development and management of water resources in the future. This study was carried out to assess the isolated and coupled effects of future climate change and land use change on the flow and nutrient load of the Xitiaoxi watershed in southeast China by applying the calibrated Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran model. Four representative concentration pathways released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and two projected land use change scenarios were used to simulate future conditions. The results indicate that climate change would result in flow increased with an average variation of 25.2% in the future, and the increased flow would be mainly concentrated on the high flow part of the total flow duration curve. Climate change would also induce seasonal shifts to nutrient load. The effects of land use change showed that nutrient load was more sensitive than flow, made Orthophosphate load increase by 2.8%-154.7%, and flow increase by 7.2%-15.1%. The results for coupled climate and land use changes indicate that flow and nutrient load would be more affected by climate change than by land use change. Climate and land use changes may amplify or weaken each other's effects on flow and nutrient load, which suggests that both should be incorporated into hydrologic models when studying the future conditions. The results of this study can help decision-makers guide management practices that aim to minimize flow and nutrient load.

Keywords: Climate change; HSPF; Hydrology; Land use change; Water quality; Xitiaoxi watershed.