Theranostic markers for personalized therapy of spider phobia: Methods of a bicentric external cross-validation machine learning approach

Abstract

Objectives: Embedded in the Collaborative Research Center "Fear, Anxiety, Anxiety Disorders" (CRC-TRR58), this bicentric clinical study aims at identifying biobehavioral markers of treatment (non-)response by applying machine learning methodology with an external cross-validation protocol. We hypothesize that a priori prediction of treatment (non-)response is possible in a second, independent sample based on multimodal markers.

Methods: One-session virtual reality exposure treatment (VRET) with patients with spider phobia was conducted on two sites. Clinical, neuroimaging, and genetic data were assessed at baseline, post-treatment and after 6 months. The primary and secondary outcomes defining treatment response are as follows: 30% reduction regarding the individual score in the Spider Phobia Questionnaire and 50% reduction regarding the individual distance in the behavioral avoidance test.

Results: N = 204 patients have been included (n = 100 in Würzburg, n = 104 in Münster). Sample characteristics for both sites are comparable.

Discussion: This study will offer cross-validated theranostic markers for predicting the individual success of exposure-based therapy. Findings will support clinical decision-making on personalized therapy, bridge the gap between basic and clinical research, and bring stratified therapy into reach. The study is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (ID: NCT03208400).

Keywords: machine learning; spider phobia; theranostic markers.