Objective: Both childhood and adult psychosocial stressors have been identified as links to both increased risk for substance use disorder (SUD) and increased risk of imprisonment. The aim of this retrospective study is to identify, for a sample of 14,914 adults who all were assessed for risky substance use or a SUD, the importance of having a history of psychosocial stressors compared to current addiction severity. The analyses control for age, gender and education on the likelihood of future imprisonment. Method: Baseline Addiction Severity Index data (ASI) were merged with national registry data on prison sentences from 2003 to 2016. In the analysis, a Cox regression was used to study the association between independent variables and the likelihood of future imprisonment. Results: In the regression, five variables showed significant association to increased risk of imprisonment: ASI drugs other than alcohol Composite Score (positive relationship), ASI alcohol Composite Score (negative relationship), age (younger), education (lower) and parental problems with drugs other than alcohol. The factor with strongest association with imprisonment was the ASI drugs other than alcohol Composite Score, which showed the highest HR = 10.63 (3.50-32.31) for women and HR = 5.52 (3.77-8.08) for men to predict the likelihood of imprisonment. Discussion: Research is needed on why individuals with history of psychosocial stressors have a higher likelihood of imprisonment compared to their counterparts. Findings indicate that a high ASI Composite Score for drugs other than alcohol are strong predictors of future criminality and criminal justice system involvement.
Keywords: Substance use disorder; Sweden; addiction severity index; imprisonment; register database study.