Vehicular emissions have become an important source of air pollution, and their effective reduction control is essential to protect the environment. The aim of this study was to establish multi-year vehicular emission inventories for ten important air pollutants and to analyze emission control policy scenarios based on these inventories. The inter-annual emission analysis results showed that the ten pollutant emissions had different change trends during the past decade. The emissions of CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCS), NOx, PM2.5, PM10, and CH4 tended to increase first and then decrease, but the years in which they began to decrease varied; the emissions of CO2 and NH3 showed the most significant growth trends, increasing by 567% and 4004% in 2015 compared with 1999, while the emissions of N2O and SO2 showed a general increasing trend and decreased obviously in a certain year. Eight scenarios based on emission inventories were designed; compared with the BAU scenario, the ESV scenario was the most effective policy to control NOx, PM2.5, and CH4 emissions; the radical AER scenario could decrease the vehicular emissions of CO, NMVOCs, PM10, CO2, N2O, and NH3; and the RFS scenario could reduce vehicular SO2 emissions significantly by 93.64%.
Keywords: YRD; emission inventory; life-cycle analysis; scenario analysis; vehicular pollution.