The empirical science of measuring and preventing sexual assault is in its infancy, especially when considering adolescents in developing nations. We analyze pre-intervention data collected in a two-arm cluster-randomized controlled trial of a classroom-based sexual assault prevention program deployed to Class 6 students around Nairobi, Kenya. We estimate that 7.2% of girls were raped in the prior 12 months. We identify school- and individual-level risk factors for rape. We isolate, as much as possible, variation in probability of rape attributable to a subset of these risk factors. We discuss statistical challenges and solutions in each of these domains.
Keywords: Sub-Saharan Africa; adolescents; causal inference; prevention; rape.