BACKGROUND: The relative accuracy of interferon-gamma release assays (IGRAs) and the tuberculin skin test (TST) in identifying latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI) is uncertain.OBJECTIVE: To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis to compare the sensitivity and specificity of IGRAs and TST for the prediction of progression to clinical tuberculosis (TB).METHODS: We searched electronic databases (e.g., MEDLINE and EMBASE) from December 2009 to September 2018 for prospective studies that followed up individuals who had undergone testing with commercial IGRAs and/or TST but had not received treatment based on the test result. The sensitivity and specificity estimates were pooled using a Bayesian bivariate random-effects model.RESULTS: Twenty-five studies, mostly with moderate to high risk of bias and a mean follow-up time ranging from 1 to 5 years were included. TST (10-15 mm) tended to have lower sensitivity and higher specificity than QuantiFERON® Gold In-Tube, T-SPOT®.TB and TST (5 mm). The evidence did not indicate that any test outperformed the others due to wide and overlapping 95% credible intervals.CONCLUSION: The evidence following individuals who had undergone testing for LTBI and had progressed to clinical TB is sparse. We did not find that IGRAs were superior to TST or vice versa; however, as our findings are based on a small number of studies with methodological limitations and great uncertainty around the pooled estimates, the results should be interpreted with caution.