Background: Land use change has a significant impact on ecosystem services in watershed systems. The upper part of Qiantang River, Kaihua Country has experienced land-use changes over the past 15 years, but the effect of these changes on ecosystem services remains unknown.
Objective: This study evaluates land-use changes in response to ecological protection and the effects on ecosystem services.
Methods: Ecosystem services during 2000-2015 are assessed and compared to future land use scenarios in 2025 (business-as-usual, strategic planning, environmental protection, and economic development). These scenarios are identified in collaboration with local stakeholders and used to assess changes in ecosystem services under future scenarios.
Results: Analysis shows that during 2000-2015, the woodland increased by 7335 ha as a result of the "Grain for green" policy, and the built-up land increased by 2259 ha due to urbanization, and these changes affected ecosystem services, such as water yield, nitrogen and phosphorus exports which decreased by 0.29%, 12.45%, and 13.74%, respectively, and soil retention, carbon storage, and habitat quality index increased by 0.05%, 1.36%, and 0.80%, respectively.
Conclusion: Among all the future scenarios, the strategic planning scenario is an optimal land use strategy to balance the demand for urban development, while providing higher levels of ecosystem services.
Keywords: CLUE-S model; Ecosystem services; InVEST model; Land use scenarios; Watershed.