Mismatches between species distributions and their optimal habitat are predicted by ecological theory and will affect species responses to changing climate. However, empirical tests lack consensus on the prevalence of such mismatches and their underlying mechanisms. Here we present a conceptual framework to quantify the mismatch between optimal conditions for species occurrence and multiple measures of population and individual performance (density, adult growth and survival, and recruitment) and the associated performance reduction, or cost. We quantified these mismatches for 59 tree species in the western US along a soil water balance gradient and found high variability in mismatches among species and among performance measures, often resulting in high costs. We used functional traits to explore how dispersal limitation, migration lags, and competitive exclusion may cause mismatches. Overall, the large variability in mismatches, their costs and the relationship with functional traits highlight the nuanced relationships between species' performance and their distributions.
Keywords: FIA; demography; forest inventory; niche theory; soil water balance; species distributions; water limitation.
© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.