Ecological carrying capacity is an important factor of sustainable development for cities, and a critical part of achieving the coordinated development of the social economic and ecological environment for urban agglomerations. In order to evaluate the regional ecological carrying capacity and provide a basis for decision-making for regional sustainable development, this paper constructs an ecological carrying capacity model for the urban agglomeration from two dimensions: ecological carrying elastic force and ecological carrying pressure. The analytic hierarchy process is utilized to determine the weights of nine indices in these two dimensions. For the Yangtze River urban agglomeration, the comprehensive index of its ecological carrying capacity is investigated quantitatively, and the spatial distribution map of its comprehensive index measuring ecological carrying capacity is computed. The results show that Nanjing, Yangzhou, Taizhou, and Changzhou are in the stage of high load carrying; Suzhou, Wuxi, Nantong, and Zhenjiang are in the stage of low load carrying. In addition, the environmental protection investment has the greatest impact on ecological carrying elastic force, followed by the proportion of the tertiary industry; wastewater discharge has the greatest impact on ecological carrying pressure. The level of ecological carrying capacity varies within the region. It is necessary to take measures to increase the ecological carrying elastic force and reduce the ecological carrying pressure according to the actual conditions in each region. Meanwhile, exchanges and cooperation between different regions should be strengthened to stimulate the coordinated and sustainable development.
Keywords: Yangtze River urban agglomeration; ecological carrying capacity; ecological carrying elastic force; ecological carrying pressure; spatial difference.