Although most species distribution modeling (SDMs) are constructed at the species level, an appreciation of evolutionary processes has led to modeling above this level. In view of the difficulty in estimating the impacts of human actions on rare or deficient data species, we proposed a new approach to vulnerability assessment based on concepts already well established in the literature (ecological niche, niche conservatism, and extinction thresholds). We used distribution modeling to predict where species of the genus Phyllocycla (Calvert 1948) are most vulnerable to local extinctions and how the implementation of planned anthropic activities by the Brazilian government may modify the potential distribution of the genus in Brazil. We chose that genus because its conservation status is little known, especially due to the data gap about its geographical distribution. We proposed modeling the whole genus and used the niche conservatism theory to justify our methods. The anthropic activities considered in our analysis were agriculture and livestock, rural settlements, energy production installations, transportation, oil extraction, mining, and urbanization. We found that only 55.3% of the original potential distribution of Phyllocycla in Brazil remains available. The area compromised by anthropic activities comprises mainly the Cerrado and Atlantic Forest biomes, with less impact on the Amazon. However, with the implementation of activities planned by the Brazilian government, it is possible that an additional 13.6% of this area will be unavailable to species of Phyllocycla, especially in the Amazon, where interest in mining and the implementation of new hydroelectric production have increased.
Keywords: Brazil; conservation biology; extinction threshold; species distribution models.