The economic value of stochastic climate information for agricultural adaptation in a semi-arid region in Austria

Abstract

Identifying efficient adaptation measures in land and water use requires integrated approaches and a spatially and temporally explicit representation of water demand and supply. Stochastic climate information may further improve adaptation assessments to reduce the risk of misinterpretation of climate signals. We aim at developing an integrated modeling framework (IMF) that meets these requirements for assessing impacts of three stochastic climate scenarios (DRY, SIMILAR, WET), and regional irrigation water restrictions on land and water use. Furthermore, impacts on regional net benefits and the economic value of stochastic climate information (VOI) are assessed. The VOI is defined as the difference between regional net benefits with and without efficient adaptation of land and water use to a specific climate scenario. The IMF has been applied to the semi-arid Seewinkel region in Austria. Considering efficient adaptation, regional net benefits amount to 8 M€ and irrigation water use to 8.4 Mm³ in a DRY climate scenario. In a WET climate scenario and a scenario with SIMILAR conditions compared to the past, regional net benefits amount to 38 and 20 M€ and irrigation water use to 41 and 21 Mm³, respectively. High regional net benefits are obtained through an expansion of vineyards, irrigation, and fertilization. On average, the VOI is highest if land and water use is efficiently adapted to DRY but a WET scenario is realized (506 €/ha/a) and lowest with efficient adaptation to WET but the realization of a SIMILAR scenario (58 €/ha/a).

Keywords: Adaptation; Climate change; Land use; Stochastic climate scenarios; Value of information; Water use.