The response of cancer patients to oxaliplatin combined with 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) is difficult to predict. It has been reported that carcinoma-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) could induce AKT and ERK phosphorylation, and upregulate survivin expression in colorectal cancer (CRC) cells, which could lead to oxaliplatin plus 5-FU resistance. A total of 71 patients with advanced CRC (aCRC) treated with oxaliplatin plus 5-FU were included in the present study. These patients comprised 46 chemotherapy responders and 25 non-responders. The expression levels of α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), phosphorylated (p)-AKT, p-ERK and survivin were determined by immunohistochemical evaluation of paraffin-embedded samples from patients. A predictive model was established using a Probabilistic Neural Network model. The high expression of α-SMA, p-AKT and survivin in patients with aCRC were associated with oxaliplatin plus 5-FU resistance (P<0.001, P=0.023 and P=0.001, respectively). Furthermore, patients with stage IV CRC exhibiting high expression levels of α-SMA and survivin experienced a reduced progression-free survival time compared with patients with low expressions of α-SMA and survivin (5.5 vs. 15.0 months; 5.5 vs. 15.0 months; P=0.005 and P=0.001, respectively). Stage IV CRC and high survivin expression predicted a reduced overall survival time compared with that for patients with stage IV CRC and low survivin expression (50.0 vs. 15.0 months; P<0.001). Patients with α-SMA, p-AKT, p-ERK and survivin overexpression were more likely to present with intrinsic resistance to the oxaliplatin plus 5-FU regimen (the accuracies of modeling, validation and prediction were 83.7, 92.9 and 85.7%, respectively). In conclusion, the multifactorial predictive biomarker model of α-SMA, p-AKT, p-ERK and survivin expression for patients with aCRC to predict intrinsic resistance to oxaliplatin plus 5-FU regimens is of great efficiency and accuracy. Patients with high expression of this predictive model may be intrinsically resistant to the oxaliplatin and 5-FU regimen.
Keywords: advanced colorectal cancer; intrinsic resistance; oxaliplatin plus 5-fluorouracil; predictive model; response.