Spatiotemporal evolution and impacts of climate change on bamboo distribution in China

Xuejian Li; Fangjie Mao; Huaqiang Du; Guomo Zhou; Luqi Xing; Tengyan Liu; Ning Han; Yuli Liu; Di'en Zhu; Junlong Zheng; Luofan Dong; Meng Zhang

doi:10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109265

Spatiotemporal evolution and impacts of climate change on bamboo distribution in China

J Environ Manage. 2019 Oct 15:248:109265. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109265. Epub 2019 Jul 25.

Authors

Xuejian Li¹, Fangjie Mao¹, Huaqiang Du², Guomo Zhou¹, Luqi Xing¹, Tengyan Liu¹, Ning Han¹, Yuli Liu¹, Di'en Zhu¹, Junlong Zheng¹, Luofan Dong¹, Meng Zhang¹

Affiliations

¹ State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Key Laboratory of Carbon Cycling in Forest Ecosystems and Carbon Sequestration of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; School of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China.
² State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Silviculture, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; Key Laboratory of Carbon Cycling in Forest Ecosystems and Carbon Sequestration of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China; School of Environmental and Resources Science, Zhejiang A & F University, Hangzhou 311300, China. Electronic address: dhqrs@126.com.

PMID: 31352276
DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2019.109265

Abstract

Understanding the impact and restriction of climate change on potential distribution of bamboo forest is crucial for sustainable management of bamboo forest and bamboo-based economic development. In this study, climatic variables and maximum entropy model were used to simulate the potential distribution of bamboo forest in China under the future climate scenarios. Seven climatic variables, such as Spring precipitation, Summer precipitation, Autumn precipitation, average annual relative humidity, Autumn average temperature, average annual temperature range and annual total radiation, were selected as input variables of maximum entropy model based on the relative importance of those climate variables for predicting bamboo forest presence. The suitable ranges of the seven climatic variables for potential distribution of bamboo forest were 337-794 mm, 496-705 mm, 213-929 mm, 74.3%-83.4%, 16.6-23.8 °C, 2.3-10.1 °C and 3.2 × 10⁴-4.3 × 10⁴ W m^-2, respectively. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the suitable area of bamboo forest growth first increased and then decreased, and showed range contractions towards the interior and expansions towards southwest in China. The results of the present study can serve as a useful reference to dynamic monitoring of the spatial distribution and sustainable utilization of bamboo forest in the future under climate change.

Keywords: Bamboo forest; Driving factors; IPCC climate scenarios; Maximum entropy model; Potential suitable area.

MeSH terms

China
Climate Change*
Forests*
Seasons
Temperature