This paper aims to uncover the spatial distribution of waste mobile phones and perform a preliminary optimization of the location of waste mobile phone recycling centers in China. This study first selects the best-suited among the logistic, Gompertz, and Bass models to forecast the per capita holding quantity of mobile phones. Combined with the population projected by the GM(1,1) and logistic models, the spatial distribution of waste mobile phones is uncovered through the stock-based model. Finally, a mixed-integer programming model is established to optimize the location of recycling centers upon the spatial distribution of waste mobile phones. Accordingly, the logistic model is concluded as the best-suited in terms of forecasting the per capita holding quantity of mobile phones for all 31 provinces in mainland China. The spatial distribution of waste mobile phones indicates the largest number in Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu while the fewest are in Xizang, Qinghai, and Ningxia, in 2016. Furthermore, a remarkable increase in waste mobile phones from 2016 to 2036 in Guangdong and Beijing is projected. The location planning study indicates that a total of 175 recycling centers will be required to cover all waste mobile phones in China in 2036. Guangdong, Beijing and Zhejiang are the top three provinces regarding the number of recycling centers, with 29, 12, and 11 centers, respectively. The authors also propose the effective promoting of waste mobile phone recycling through regional cooperation and the establishment of regional management centers. The results of this study are expected to benefit waste mobile phone recycling in China.
Keywords: Waste mobile phones; estimation; location planning; recycling; spatial distribution.