Purpose: The purpose of this study was to calculate the positive predictive value (PPV) of lumbar spine magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings for a painful disc using provocative discography.
Materials and methods: Lumbar spine discography records and prediscography MRIs of 736 patients (2457 discs) who underwent discography for diagnostic purposes from 2003 to 2007 were retrospectively reviewed in an Institutional Review Board-exempt and Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant protocol. Each level was identified as having high-intensity zone (HIZ) disc, disc protrusion, disc extrusion, or combination (any herniation type), disc bulge, disc degeneration, and spondylolisthesis. Statistical analysis used a 2 × 2 contingency table of significant discography results for each of the MRI variables to calculate P value and PPV with a confidence interval from a binomial distribution.
Results: An HIZ disc has a PPV of 0.71 (0.65-0.76, P = 4.31E - 44) for a provocative discography. A disc protrusion has a PPV of 0.79 (0.73-0.83, P = 2.68E - 53). A disc extrusion has a PPV of 0.93 (0.79-0.98, P = 1.34E - 14), a bulge of 0.43 (0.37-0.48, P = 0.002), and a degenerative disc of 0.32 (0.28-0.35, P = 0.08), and spondylolisthesis has a PPV of 0.67 (0.59-0.73, P = 1.70E - 20). A herniation of either type (extrusion or protrusion) has a PPV of 0.80 (0.75-0.84, P = 5.86E - 69).
Conclusions: Disc herniations and HIZ discs have high predictive value in identifying a pain generator. An extruded disc herniation has the highest PPV for discogenic pain.