Economic losses due to ozone impacts on human health, forest productivity and crop yield across China

Abstract

China's economic growth has significantly increased emissions of tropospheric ozone (O₃) precursors, resulting in increased regional O₃ pollution. We analyzed data from >1400 monitoring stations and estimated the exposure of population and vegetation (crops and forests) to O₃ pollution across China in 2015. Based on WHO metrics for human health protection, the current O₃ level leads to +0.9% premature mortality (59,844 additional cases a year) with 96% of populated areas showing O₃-induced premature death. For vegetation, O₃ reduces annual forest tree biomass growth by 11-13% and yield of rice and wheat by 8% and 6%, respectively, relative to conditions below the respective AOT40 critical levels (CL). These CLs are exceeded over 98%, 75% and 83% of the areas of forests, rice and wheat, respectively. Using O₃ exposure-response functions, we evaluated the costs of O₃-induced losses in rice (7.5 billion US$), wheat (11.1 billion US$) and forest production (52.2 billion US$) and SOMO35-based morbidity for respiratory diseases (690.9 billion US$) and non-accidental mortality (7.5 billion US$), i.e. a total O₃-related cost representing 7% of the China Gross Domestic Product in 2015.

Keywords: Crops; Economic valuation; Forests; Human health; Impacts; Rice; Risk assessment; Surface ozone; Wheat.