Epidemiological dynamics of dengue fever in mainland China, 2014-2018

Abstract

Objective: To explore the epidemiological dynamics of dengue fever.

Methods: Epidemiological dynamics of imported and indigenous dengue cases during 2014-2018, including demographic, time-series, spatial and spatio-temporal features, were analyzed.

Results: There were 5 458 imported dengue cases and 59 183 indigenous dengue cases during 2014-2018. Both imported and indigenous dengue cases show seasonal patterns from August to November. 12.9% (12.9/100) of dengue cases were from businessmen. 58.2% (58.2/100) of dengue cases were from individuals between 21-50 years old. Imported dengue cases, mainly from Southeastern Asia, had doubled, and were distributed in 734 counties, 29 provinces, with 50% (50/100) in Yunnan. Except in 2014, indigenous dengue cases were under 5 000 every year, but the number in counties increased dramatically from 51 to 127. The total cases were distributed in 314 districts, 13 provinces. They were clustered in Yunnan border and southern Guangdong. They emerged gradually from southwestern and southern provinces to southeastern coastal provinces, and then to central and northern provinces every year. They spread from the southern regions to the central and northern regions in 2014-2018.

Conclusions: The findings of epidemiological dynamics of dengue fever are helpful to formulate targeted, strategic plans and implement effective public health prevention and control measures.

Keywords: Dengue fever; Space-time scan statistic; Spatial autocorrelation; Spatial diffusion; Spatio-temporal analysis; Time-series anlysis.