Designing crop ideotype is an important step to raise genetic yield potential in a target environment. In the present study, we designed wheat ideotypes based on the state-of-the-art knowledge in crop physiology to increase genetic yield potential for the 2050-climate, as projected by the HadGEM2 global climate model for the RCP8.5 emission scenario, in two high-wheat-productive countries, viz. the United Kingdom (UK) and New Zealand (NZ). Wheat ideotypes were optimized to maximize yield potential for both water-limited (IW2050 ) and potential (IP2050 ) conditions by using Sirius model and exploring the full range of cultivar parameters. On average, a 43-51% greater yield potential over the present winter wheat cv. Claire was achieved for IW2050 in the UK and NZ, whereas a 51-62% increase was obtained for IP2050 . Yield benefits due to the potential condition over water-limitation were small in the UK, but 13% in NZ. The yield potentials of wheat were 16% (2.6 t ha-1) and 31% (5 t ha-1) greater in NZ than in the UK under 2050-climate in water-limited and potential conditions respectively. Modelling predicts the possibility of substantial increase in genetic yield potential of winter wheat under climate change in high productive countries. Wheat ideotypes optimized for future climate could provide plant scientists and breeders with a road map for selection of the target traits and their optimal combinations for wheat improvement and genetic adaptation to raise the yield potential.
Keywords: Climate change; Crop modelling; Genetic yield potential; Ideotype design; Sirius model; Wheat.