Network context matters: graph convolutional network model over social networks improves the detection of unknown HIV infections among young men who have sex with men

Abstract

Objective: HIV infection risk can be estimated based on not only individual features but also social network information. However, there have been insufficient studies using n machine learning methods that can maximize the utility of such information. Leveraging a state-of-the-art network topology modeling method, graph convolutional networks (GCN), our main objective was to include network information for the task of detecting previously unknown HIV infections.

Materials and methods: We used multiple social network data (peer referral, social, sex partners, and affiliation with social and health venues) that include 378 young men who had sex with men in Houston, TX, collected between 2014 and 2016. Due to the limited sample size, an ensemble approach was engaged by integrating GCN for modeling information flow and statistical machine learning methods, including random forest and logistic regression, to efficiently model sparse features in individual nodes.

Results: Modeling network information using GCN effectively increased the prediction of HIV status in the social network. The ensemble approach achieved 96.6% on accuracy and 94.6% on F1 measure, which outperformed the baseline methods (GCN, logistic regression, and random forest: 79.0%, 90.5%, 94.4% on accuracy, respectively; and 57.7%, 80.2%, 90.4% on F1). In the networks with missing HIV status, the ensemble also produced promising results.

Conclusion: Network context is a necessary component in modeling infectious disease transmissions such as HIV. GCN, when combined with traditional machine learning approaches, achieved promising performance in detecting previously unknown HIV infections, which may provide a useful tool for combatting the HIV epidemic.

Keywords: HIV; epidemiology; graph convolutional networks; machine learning; social networks.