A threshold delay model of HIV infection of newborn infants through breastfeeding

Infect Dis Model. 2019 May 16:4:188-214. doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2019.05.001. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

The breast milk of HIV infected women contains HIV virus particles, therefore children can become infected through breastfeeding. We develop a mathematical epidemiological model of HIV infection in infants, infected children and infected women that represents infection of an infant/child as a series of exposures, by incorporating within-host virus dynamics in the individuals exposed to the virus through breastfeeding. We show that repeated exposures of the infant/child via breastfeeding can cause bi-stability dynamics and, subsequently, infection persistence even when the epidemiological basic reproduction number R 0 is less than unity. This feature of the model, due to a backward bifurcation, gives new insight into the control mechanisms of HIV disease through breastfeeding.

Keywords: Backward bifurcation; Breastfeeding; HIV; Multiple-exposure; State-dependent delay; Within-host.