Comparison of neuron-based, kernel-based, tree-based and curve-based machine learning models for predicting daily reference evapotranspiration

PLoS One. 2019 May 31;14(5):e0217520. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217520. eCollection 2019.

Abstract

Accurately predicting reference evapotranspiration (ET0) with limited climatic data is crucial for irrigation scheduling design and agricultural water management. This study evaluated eight machine learning models in four categories, i.e. neuron-based (MLP, GRNN and ANFIS), kernel-based (SVM, KNEA), tree-based (M5Tree, XGBoost) and curve-based (MARS) models, for predicting daily ET0 with maximum/maximum temperature and precipitation data during 2001-2015 from 14 stations in various climatic regions of China, i.e., arid desert of northwest China (NWC), semi-arid steppe of Inner Mongolia (IM), Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP), (semi-)humid cold-temperate northeast China (NEC), semi-humid warm-temperate north China (NC), humid subtropical central China (CC) and humid tropical south China (SC). The results showed machine learning models using only temperature data obtained satisfactory daily ET0 estimates (on average R2 = 0.829, RMSE = 0.718 mm day-1, NRMSE = 0.250 and MAE = 0.508 mm day-1). The prediction accuracy was improved by 7.6% across China when information of precipitation was further considered, particularly in (sub)tropical humid regions (by 9.7% in CC and 12.4% in SC). The kernel-based SVM, KNEA and curve-based MARS models generally outperformed the others in terms of prediction accuracy, with the best performance by KNEA in NWC and IM, by SVM in QTP, CC and SC, and very similar performance by them in NEC and NC. SVM (1.9%), MLP (2.0%), MARS (2.6%) and KNEA (6.4%) showed relatively small average increases in RMSE during testing compared with training RMSE. SVM is highly recommended for predicting daily ET0 across China in light of best accuracy and stability, while KNEA and MARS are also promising powerful models.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Agricultural Irrigation*
  • China
  • Climate
  • Decision Trees
  • Humidity
  • Machine Learning*
  • Neural Networks, Computer
  • Spatial Analysis
  • Temperature

Grants and funding

This study was jointly supported by the Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Fund (Farmland Irrigation Research Institute, CAAS, FIRI2018-01), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 51709144). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.