Parameter estimates of the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak in Costa Rica: An Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) approach

Math Biosci Eng. 2019 Mar 28;16(4):2738-2755. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2019136.

Abstract

In Costa Rica, the first known cases of Zika were reported in 2016. We looked at the 2016-2017 Zika outbreak and explored the transmission dynamics using weekly reported data. A nonlinear differential equation single-outbreak model with sexual transmission, as well as host availability for vector-feeding was used to estimate key parameters, fit the data and compute the basic reproductive number, R₀, distribution. Furthermore, a sensitivity and elasticity analysis was computed based on the R₀ parameters.

Keywords: Approximate Bayesian Computation; Zika virus; basic reproductive number; epidemic models; public health; transmission dynamics; vector-borne diseases.

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Algorithms
  • Animals
  • Basic Reproduction Number*
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Costa Rica / epidemiology
  • Culicidae
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Disease Vectors
  • Elasticity
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Pregnancy
  • Pregnancy Complications, Infectious / epidemiology
  • Young Adult
  • Zika Virus
  • Zika Virus Infection / epidemiology*
  • Zika Virus Infection / transmission*