Joint Estimation of Relative Risk for Dengue and Zika Infections, Colombia, 2015-2016

Emerg Infect Dis. 2019 Jun;25(6):1118-1126. doi: 10.3201/eid2506.180392.

Abstract

We jointly estimated relative risk for dengue and Zika virus disease (Zika) in Colombia, establishing the spatial association between them at the department and city levels for October 2015-December 2016. Cases of dengue and Zika were allocated to the 87 municipalities of 1 department and the 293 census sections of 1 city in Colombia. We fitted 8 hierarchical Bayesian Poisson joint models of relative risk for dengue and Zika, including area- and disease-specific random effects accounting for several spatial patterns of disease risk (clustered or uncorrelated heterogeneity) within and between both diseases. Most of the dengue and Zika high-risk municipalities varied in their risk distribution; those for Zika were in the northern part of the department and dengue in the southern to northeastern parts. At city level, spatially clustered patterns of dengue high-risk census sections indicated Zika high-risk areas. This information can be used to inform public health decision making.

Keywords: Bayesian models; Colombia; Risk maps; Zika virus; conditional auto-regressive prior; dengue virus; multivariate risk models; viruses.

Publication types

  • Historical Article
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Colombia / epidemiology
  • Dengue / epidemiology*
  • Dengue / history
  • Dengue / virology
  • Dengue Virus
  • Female
  • Geography, Medical
  • History, 21st Century
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prevalence
  • Risk Assessment
  • Risk Factors
  • Young Adult
  • Zika Virus
  • Zika Virus Infection / epidemiology*
  • Zika Virus Infection / history
  • Zika Virus Infection / virology