Background: Gastric cancer is the fourth most common cancer and the third most common cause of cancer deaths worldwide. Morbidity and mortality from gastric cancer may be decreased by identification of those that are at high risk for progression in the gastric precancerous process so that they can be monitored over time for early detection and implementation of preventive strategies.
Method: Using machine learning, we developed prediction models for gastric precancerous progression in a population from a developing country with a high rate of gastric cancer who underwent gastroscopies for dyspeptic symptoms. In the data imputed for completeness, we divided the data into a training and a validation test set. Using the training set, we used the random forest method to rank potential predictors based on their predictive importance. Using predictors identified by the random forest method, we conducted best subset linear regressions with the leave-one-out cross-validation approach to select predictors for overall progression and progression to dysplasia or cancer. We validated the models in the test set using leave-one-out cross-validation.
Results: We observed for all models that complete intestinal metaplasia and incomplete intestinal metaplasia were the strongest predictors for further progression in the precancerous process. We also observed that a diagnosis of no gastritis, superficial gastritis, or antral diffuse gastritis at baseline was a predictor of no progression in the gastric precancerous process. The sensitivities and specificities were 86% and 79% for the general model and 100% and 82% for the location-specific model, respectively.
Conclusion: We developed prediction models to identify gastroscopy patients that are more likely to progress in the gastric precancerous process, among whom routine follow-up gastroscopies can be targeted to prevent gastric cancer. Future external validation is needed.