Aim: This paper presents the statistical bases for temporal beta-diversity analysis, a method to study changes in community composition through time from repeated surveys at several sites. Surveys of that type are presently done by ecologists around the world. A temporal beta-diversity Index (TBI) is computed for each site, measuring the change in species composition between the first (T1) and second surveys (T2). TBI indices can be decomposed into losses and gains; they can also be tested for significance, allowing one to identify the sites that have changed in composition in exceptional ways. This method will be of value to identify exceptional sites in space-time surveys carried out to study anthropogenic impacts, including climate change.
Innovation: The null hypothesis of the TBI test is that a species assemblage is not exceptionally different between T1 and T2, compared to assemblages that could have been observed at this site at T1 and T2 under conditions corresponding to H0. Tests of significance of coefficients in a dissimilarity matrix are usually not possible because the values in the matrix are interrelated. Here, however, the dissimilarity between T1 and T2 for a site is computed with different data from the dissimilarities used for the T1-T2 comparison at other sites. It is thus possible to compute a valid test of significance in that case. In addition, the paper shows how TBI dissimilarities can be decomposed into loss and gain components (of species, or abundances-per-species) and how a B-C plot can be produced from these components, which informs users about the processes of biodiversity losses and gains through time in space-time survey data.
Main conclusion: Three applications of the method to different ecological communities are presented. This method is applicable worldwide to all types of communities, marine, and terrestrial. R software is available implementing the method.
Keywords: B–C plots; beta diversity; space–time analysis; statistical power; temporal beta diversity; temporal beta diversity index; type I error.