Introduction: The association between GOLD categorizations and future exacerbations has not been fully investigated. This study elucidates whether the GOLD 2017 classification is associated with different future exacerbation risk in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) compared with the previous GOLD categorization. Another objective was to investigate the impacts of the symptoms and FEV1 on the predicted future exacerbation independently of previous exacerbation history.
Methods: We analyzed patients from three prospective COPD cohorts (SNUH, KOCOSS, and KOLD) and evaluated the risk of moderate to severe exacerbation among different models, including GOLD grade (FEV1), GOLD 2011, and GOLD 2017.
Results: In total, 611 COPD patients were included (36 from SNUH, 257 from KOCOSS, and 318 from KOLD). GOLD 2017 classification, excluding FEV1% for categorization criteria, showed no differences in future exacerbation risk compared with GOLD grade and GOLD 2011 based on c-statistics. Among those with no frequent exacerbation history and FEV1 ≥50%, the group with more symptoms was significantly associated with future exacerbations than the group with less symptoms. A lower FEV1 (FEV1 <50%) was not associated with a higher future exacerbation risk than a higher FEV1 (FEV1 ≥50%), regardless of prior exacerbation history and symptom group.
Conclusion: The GOLD 2017 classification was not different from GOLD grade and GOLD 2011 regarding the association with future exacerbation risk, and there were no significant differences in exacerbation risk according to FEV1%. This suggests that FEV1 might not be an important factor in future exacerbation risk. These results partly support the GOLD 2017 assessment tool.
Keywords: Acute exacerbation; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; Emphysema; Enfermedad pulmonar obstructiva crónica; Enfisema; Exacerbación aguda; Pulmonary function tests; Test de función pulmonar.
Copyright © 2019 SEPAR. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.