Background: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and heart rate (HR) are well-known prognostic factors in heart failure (HF).
Aims: Our objective was to assess the value of the combination of admission SBP and HR to estimate 1-year mortality risks in elderly patients admitted due to a first episode of acute HF (AHF).
Methods: During a 36-month period, we retrospectively reviewed 901 consecutive patients aged ≥ 75 admitted because of a first episode of AHF. According to admission SBP-HR combinations, three groups were defined: "low-risk" (HR < 70 bpm and SBP ≥ 140 mmHg), "moderate-risk" (HR < 70 bpm and SBP < 140 mmHg or HR ≥ 70 bmp and SBP ≥ 120 mmHg), and "high-risk" (HR ≥ 70 bpm and SBP < 120 mmHg). We analyzed all-cause mortality using Cox mortality analysis.
Results: One-year mortality ranged from 16.5% for patients in the low-risk group to 50% for those in the high-risk group (p < 0.0001). Multivariate Cox regression for 1-year mortality showed hazard risk (HzR) ratios, compared to that (HzR 1) of the low-risk reference group, of 1.759 (95% CI 1.035-2.988, p = 0.037) for moderate-risk, and 3.171 (95% CI 1.799-5.589, p = 0.0001) for high-risk group. Prior use of a high number of chronic therapies (HzR 1.045), lower admission diastolic BP (HzR 0.986) and higher admission serum potassium values (HzR 1.534) were also significantly associated with mortality.
Conclusion: In elderly population firstly hospitalized due to AHF, the simple combined admission measurement of SBP and HR predicts higher risk for 1-year all-cause mortality.
Keywords: Acute heart failure; Heart failure; Heart rate; Mortality; Readmission risk score; Systolic blood pressure.