Under future climates, leaf temperature (Tl ) will be higher and more variable. This will affect plant carbon (C) balance because photosynthesis and respiration both respond to short-term (subdaily) fluctuations in Tl and acclimate in the longer term (days to months). This study asks the question: To what extent can the potential and speed of photosynthetic acclimation buffer leaf C gain from rising and increasing variable Tl ? We quantified how increases in the mean and variability of growth temperature affect leaf performance (mean net CO2 assimilation rates, Anet ; its variability; and time under near-optimal photosynthetic conditions), as mediated by thermal acclimation. To this aim, the probability distribution of Anet was obtained by combining a probabilistic description of short- and long-term changes in Tl with data on Anet responses to these changes, encompassing 75 genera and 111 species, including both C3 and C4 species. Our results show that (a) expected increases in Tl variability will decrease mean Anet and increase its variability, whereas the effects of higher mean Tl depend on species and initial Tl , and (b) acclimation reduces the effects of leaf warming, maintaining Anet at >80% of its maximum under most thermal regimes.
Keywords: climate change; global change; leaf net CO2 assimilation rate; rising temperatures; stochastic process; temperature variability; thermal acclimation.
© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.