Background: Our goal was to develop a risk stratification index (RSI) that could guide management of our patients. We hypothesized that the risks of unexpected overstay admission (OS) and emergency department (ED) transfer are predictable on the basis of patient factors for elective outpatient shoulder arthroscopic surgery.
Methods: We first identified 124,860 subjects who received shoulder arthroscopic surgery in the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project database. We next conducted multivariable regression analysis to identify risk factors associated with unanticipated OS or ED transfer. The risk factors were then adopted to construct the RSI. We last applied the RSI into our practice and prospectively collected outcome data between August 2014 and June 2015.
Results: The significant risk factors included arrhythmia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, obesity, neurologic disease with function impairment, and general anesthesia. All significant risk factors were then adopted to calculate the RSI with equal weight assignment. Simulated analysis concluded that a patient with 2 or fewer risk factors would carry a theoretical rate for OS or ED events of 0.73%. A total of 583 shoulder arthroscopy procedures were performed, among which 472 (81.0%) patients passed the RSI and were successfully managed in the outpatient surgical center without any admission. There were 111 (19.0%) subjects with procedures performed in the main hospital, with 2 unexpected admissions (1.8%).
Conclusion: We developed an RSI tool for shoulder arthroscopic surgery with an existing national database. It is our conclusion that the RSI system is an effective tool to optimize clinical practice. However, over time, a longer follow-up period might provide more convincing evidence.
Keywords: Emergency department transfer; Outpatient; Overstay admission; Risk factor; Risk stratification; Shoulder arthroscopy.