NON-TARGETED EFFECTS LEAD TO A PARIDIGM SHIFT IN RISK ASSESSMENT FOR A MISSION TO THE EARTH'S MOON OR MARTIAN MOON PHOBOS

Abstract

Cancer risk is an important limitation for galactic cosmic ray (GCR) exposures, which consist of a wide-energy range of protons, heavy ions and secondary radiation produced in shielding and tissues. Many studies suggest non-targeted effects (NTEs) occur for low doses of high-linear energy transfer (LET) radiation, leading to deviation from the linear dose response model used in radiation protection. We investigate corrections to quality factors (QF) for NTEs, which are used in predictions of fatal cancer risks for exploration missions. Prediction of fatal cancer risks for missions to the Martian moon, Phobos of 500-d and the Earth's moon of 365-d for average solar minimum condition show increases of 2- to 4-fold higher in the NTE model compared with the conventional model. Limitations in estimating uncertainties in NTE model parameters due to sparse radiobiology data at low doses are discussed.