Response to Economic Shock: The Impact of Recession on Rural-Urban Suicides in the United States

Abstract

Objective: This study examines the effect of economic recession on the suicide differential between rural and urban counties.

Methods: A negative binomial regression model and county mortality data are used to estimate the effect of recession and rurality on county-level suicides from 2002-2016.

Results: After accounting for differences in population, urban counties have more female suicides than rural counties, but urban counties experience smaller increases in female suicide numbers during periods of recession than rural counties. Long-term factors such as high chronic poverty or unemployment have a greater impact on male suicide rates, while short-term economic crises have a larger impact on female suicides. Higher percentages of children in the county have an increasing effect on male suicides, but a decreasing effect on female suicides. Finally, farm-dependent counties have fewer suicides than non-farm-dependent counties. This holds true for both males and females.

Conclusions: Periods of recession impact suicide numbers; however, this effect is most noticeable for females, with rural counties having larger increases in female suicide numbers than their urban counterparts during recession years.

Keywords: farm; recession; rural; suicide; urban.