4-(methylnitrosamino)-1-(3-pyridyl)-1-butanone is a potent carcinogen found in all tobacco products that leads to a variety of DNA lesions in cells, including O6-[4-oxo-4-(3-pyridyl)butyl]guanine (POB-G) and O6-[4-hydroxy-4-(3-pyridyl)butyl]guanine (PHB-G), which differ by only a single substituent in the bulky moiety. This work uses a multiscale computational approach to shed light on the intrinsic conformational and base-pairing preferences of POB-G and PHB-G, and the corresponding properties in DNA and the polymerase η active site. Our calculations reveal that both lesions form stable pairs with C and T, with the T pairs being the least distorted relative to canonical DNA. This rationalizes the experimentally reported mutational profile for POB-G and validates our computational model. The same approach predicts that PHB-G is more mutagenic than POB-G due to a difference in the bulky moiety hydrogen-bonding pattern, which increases the stability of the PHB-G:T pair. The mutagenicity of PHB-G is likely further increased by stabilization of an intercalated DNA conformation that is associated with deletion mutations. This work thereby uncovers structural explanations for the reported mutagenicity of POB-G, provides the first clues regarding the mutagenicity of PHB-G and complements a growing body of literature highlighting that subtle chemical changes can affect the biological outcomes of DNA adducts.