A quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the risk of introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) in the United States via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships

Abstract

Following a qualitative risk assessment, in which we identified and assessed all viable pathways for the introduction of the Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) into the United States (US), we identified entry through infected vectors via aircraft and cargo ships as the most likely pathway, and thus considered it further in a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) model. The objective of this study was to evaluate the risk of introduction of JEV in the US via infected mosquitoes transported in aircraft and cargo ships arriving from Asia, using a QRA model. We created a stochastic model to quantify the probability of introduction of at least one infected mosquito in the continental US via aircraft and cargo ships, per at-risk period (March to October) or year, respectively. We modeled the following parameters: number of flights (per at-risk period, i.e., March to October) and cargo ships (per year) and per region, number of mosquitoes per flight and ship, number of mosquitoes that were not found and sensitivity of the mosquito collection method in aircraft, mosquito infection rates, and number of mosquitoes coming in aircraft per at-risk period (March to October) and cargo ships per year. Flight and cargo ship data pertained to years 2010-2016. For model building purposes, we only considered port-to-port vessels arriving from Asia to the US, we assumed that mosquitoes survive the trans-Pacific Ocean ship crossing and that the number of mosquitoes in cargo and passenger flights is similar. Our model predicted a very high risk (0.95 median probability; 95% CI = 0.80-0.99) of at least one infected mosquito being introduced in the US during the at-risk period, i.e., March to October, via aircraft transportation from JEV-affected countries in Asia. We also estimated that a median of three infected mosquitoes can enter the US during the at-risk period, i.e., March to October (95% CI = 1-7). The highest probability of introduction via aircraft was attributed to the Mediterranean California ecoregion (0.74; 95% CI = 0.50-0.90). We predicted, however, a negligible risk (0; 95% CI = 0.00-0.01) of at least one infected mosquito being introduced via cargo ships. Although the risk of introduction of JEV-infected mosquitoes by cargo ships was negligible, the risk via aircraft was estimated to be high. Our findings indicate the need to prioritize JEV prevention and control methods for aircraft-based pathways, such as aircraft disinfection. The quantitative estimates provided in this study are of interest to public health entities and other stakeholders, as they may support future interventions for preventing JEV introduction, as well as other vector-borne diseases, in the US and other countries.

Keywords: Aircraft; Cargo ships; Japanese encephalitis; Japanese encephalitis virus; Quantitative risk assessment.