Initial validation of a simulation model for estimating the impact of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis vaccination in the African meningitis belt

PLoS One. 2018 Oct 25;13(10):e0206117. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0206117. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

We previously developed a mathematical simulation of serogroup A Neisseria meningitidis (NmA) transmission in Burkina Faso, with the goal of forecasting the relative benefit of different vaccination programs. Here, we revisit key structural assumptions of the model by comparing how accurately the different assumptions reproduce observed NmA trends following vaccine introduction. A priori, we updated several of the model's parameters based on recently published studies. We simulated NmA disease under different assumptions about duration of vaccine-induced protection (including the possibility that vaccine-induced protection may last longer than natural immunity). We compared simulated and observed case counts from 2011-2017. We then used the best-fit model to forecast the impact of different vaccination strategies. Our updated model, with the assumption that vaccine-induced immunity lasts longer than immunity following NmA colonization, was able to reproduce observed trends in NmA disease. The updated model predicts that, following a mass campaign among persons 1-29 years of age, either routine immunization of 9 month-old children or periodic mini-campaigns among children 1-4 years of age will lead to sustained control of epidemic NmA in Burkina Faso. This validated model can help public health officials set policies for meningococcal vaccination in Africa.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Burkina Faso / epidemiology
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Immunization Programs / standards
  • Infant
  • Male
  • Meningitis, Meningococcal / epidemiology
  • Meningitis, Meningococcal / prevention & control*
  • Meningococcal Vaccines / therapeutic use*
  • Neisseria meningitidis, Serogroup A / immunology*
  • Serogroup
  • Statistics as Topic / methods*
  • Vaccination* / methods
  • Vaccination* / standards
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Meningococcal Vaccines

Grants and funding

This project was funded by Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance through a grant from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1157270).