Payments for ecosystem services (PES) may alter dynamics in coupled human and natural systems, producing reciprocal feedback effects on socioeconomic and environmental outcomes. As forests recover following China's two nation-wide PES programs, wildlife-related crop raiding has been increasingly affecting rural people's livelihoods. We evaluate the feedback effect of crop raiding on people's intention to convert their cropland plots into forests under different PES program scenarios in the Tianma National Nature Reserve. Increases in crop raiding, conservation payment amounts, and program duration significantly increased local people's intention to enroll their cropland plots in future PES programs. Our results suggest that a substantial portion of economic benefit from the current PES programs was offset by the feedback effect of crop raiding promoted by these programs. Therefore, such complex human-environment interactions should be incorporated into the design and evaluation of China's PES practices and other PES programs around the world.
Keywords: Complex human–environment interactions; Ecological Welfare Forest Program; Grain-to-Green Program; Human livelihoods; Stated choice; Tianma National Nature Reserve.