Background: Subjective cognitive decline (SCD) has low predictive value for incident dementia.
Objectives: We examined whether CT detectable brain changes add predictive value to SCD in a population sample with high scores on the Mini-Mental State Examination.
Methods: Subjective reports of memory and executive function were gathered in a non-demented population sample ≥70 years (n = 921). CT-brain was performed at baseline (n = 626). Brain atrophy, infarcts, and white matter lesions (WMLs) were classified using visual ratings. Dementia incidence was evaluated periodically during 12 years.
Results: The prevalence of SCD was 32.5% among individuals without dementia. During follow-up, 151 individuals (16.4%) developed dementia. The risk of dementia was increased in SCD, and increased further with WMLs and cortical atrophy present. However, the positive predictive values for incident dementia were low, 25% in SCD and 41% in SCD with WMLs and cortical atrophy.
Conclusion: Our observations add clinical value to the use of SCD and CT to select relevant populations for interventions against dementia, but more stringent screening methods are necessary to reach individuals at risk.
Keywords: Cognitive dysfunction; dementia; neuroimaging; subjective; white matter.