[Characteristics on spatial and temporal distribution as well as the driving effect of meteorological factors on brucellosis in Datong city, Shanxi province, 2005-2015]

Abstract

Objective: To explore the spatio-temporal epidemic trends and related driving effects of meteorological factors on brucellosis in Datong city, Shanxi province, from 2005 to 2015. Methods: We collected the surveillance data on brucellosis and related meteorological data in Datong city from 2005 to 2015, to describe the epidemic characteristics of the disease. Quasi-Poisson distribution lag non-liner model (DLNM) was built to explore the driving effect of monthly meteorological data on the disease. Results: From 2005 to 2015, Datong city reported a total of 17 311 cases of brucellosis including one death, with the annual average incidence as 47.43 per 100 000 persons. A rising trend was seen during the study period. The monthly incidence of Brucellosis presented an obvious curve with a major peak from March to June, accounted for 48.40% of the total cases. The high incidence areas in the city gradually expanded from the northeast and southeast to the western areas. Results from the DLNM studies suggested that seasonality of brucellosis in Datong was significantly affected by metrological factors such as evaporation, rainfall and temperature. The peak of delayed effect appeared the highest when the monthly cumulative evaporation capacity was 140-260 mm and the monthly cumulative rainfall was 20-60 mm with lag less than 1 month or the monthly temperature was -13 ℃ with lag of 4-5 months. Conclusions: The incidence of human brucellosis in Datong city increased significantly from 2005 to 2015. Meteorological factors such as evaporation, rainfall, temperature all showed significant driving effects on the disease.

Keywords: Brucellosis; Distribute lag non-linear model; Meteorological factor; Spatial and temporal distribution.