[Semi-quantitative risk assessment of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza epidemic in Zhejiang province]

Abstract

Objective: To assess the risk of local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza infection in Zhejiang province and to explore the semi-quantitative assessment method for public health risks in emergency.

Methods: Risk index system of human infection with H7N9 avian influenza caused by local transmission were reviewed. The weights of indexes were calculated by analytic hierarchy process, which was combined with the TOPSIS method to calculate the risk comprehensive index.

Results: Four primary indexes and 23 secondary indexes were identified for risk assessment in local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza infection. The weights ranked on the top five were:morbidity (0.0972), closure measures (0.0718), sterilization measures (0.0673), fatality rate (0.0651), and epidemic spread (0.0616). The comprehensive index of the risk of local outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza ranged from high to low were Hangzhou (0.5910), Shaoxing (0.5711), Jiaxing (0.5199), Taizhou (0.5198), Huzhou (0.4662), Ningbo (0.3828), Wenzhou (0.3719), Jinhua (0.3392), Lishui (0.2727), Quzhou (0.2001) and Zhoushan (0.0508).

Conclusions: A semi-quantitative method has been established in this study, which provides scientific basis for prevention and control of H7N9 avian influenza epidemic in Zhejiang province.