Effects of screening and universal healthcare on long-term colorectal cancer mortality

Int J Epidemiol. 2019 Apr 1;48(2):538-548. doi: 10.1093/ije/dyy182.

Abstract

Background: To evaluate the time trends of colorectal cancer (CRC) affected by a Nationwide Colorectal Cancer Screening (NCCS) programme with biennial faecal immunochemical testing (FIT) and Nationwide Healthcare Insurance (NHI).

Methods: Data from the national registries on cancer and death in Taiwan were separated into years 1984-1993, 1994-2003 and 2004-2013 based on the implementations of NHI (starting 1995) and NCCS (starting 2004). The adult population was divided into three age groups (young, 30-49; middle-aged, 50-69; and old, 70-84 years); only the middle-aged were eligible for NCCS. Crude and adjusted effects of NCCS and NHI were quantified by percentage change and 95% confidence interval (CI) with respect to CRC mortality, according to the attributions from incidence and survival.

Results: Within 335 million person-years of follow-up, 204 362 incident CRCs and 80 771 CRC-related deaths were identified. Increasing mortality trends were noted for 1994-2003 (post-NHI) vs 1984-1993 due to remarkable increasing incidence trends that could not be offset by improved survival as a result of NHI. During 2004-13 (post-NCCS), mortality continued to increase by 15% (95% CI: 10-21%) in young adults (30-49 years) and 8% (95% CI: 6-11%) in older adults (70-84 years), whereas middle-aged adults (50-69 years) had a reduction of 7% (95% CI: 5-9%) due to a remarkable stage shift and subsequent improvement in survival. In the middle-aged adults, increased incidence was less but survival improvement was more compared with other age groups.

Conclusions: Whereas universal healthcare insurance led to improvement in CRC survival, FIT-based screening has made an even greater contribution to reducing CRC mortality.

Keywords: cancer prevention; colonoscopy; colorectal cancer; screening.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Age Distribution
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Colonoscopy
  • Colorectal Neoplasms / diagnosis*
  • Colorectal Neoplasms / mortality*
  • Early Detection of Cancer / methods*
  • Female
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Male
  • Mass Screening / methods*
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Occult Blood
  • Registries
  • Regression Analysis
  • Sex Distribution
  • Taiwan / epidemiology
  • Universal Health Care*