Shock transmission in the International Food Trade Network

PLoS One. 2018 Aug 8;13(8):e0200639. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200639. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

Food Security is a long-standing concern worldwide. The expansion of global food markets brings benefits but also risks, such as shock transmission within the global network of trade relations. We focus on this last issue, from an empirical point of view, by analysing the diffusion of trade shocks-defined as relevant drops in exported quantities-during the period 1986-2011, for four major staples (wheat, maize, rice, and soy-beans) both at country level and at global scale. We find that: (i) income per capita of importing countries is relevant in shock propagation; (ii) developing countries tend to absorb most of the negative export variation (i.e., the trade shock), and (iii) global food prices and real (tonnes) flows of commodities are only weakly correlated, meaning that a quantity-based investigation provides additional information with respect to a price-based analysis. This work offers a novel framework, complementary to the price-based literature, for the measurement of the propagation of international food shocks.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Commerce
  • Food Supply / economics*
  • International Cooperation
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Triticum

Grants and funding

This work was supported by European Research Council (ERC-2014-CoG): Coping with water scarcity in a globalized world (CWASI), project 647473. CWASI project tackles water globalization problems using quantitative methods to study the effects of water relocation and trade through consumption and food production on food security and water crises occurrence. Professor Francesco Laio was the recipient of the funding. Website: http://www.researchers.polito.it/success_stories/progetti_erc_european_research_council/affrontare_la_scarsita_d_acqua_in_un_mondo_globalizzato.