Validation of the China-PAR Equations for Cardio-cerebrovascular Risk Prediction in the Inner Mongolian Population

Abstract

The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the China-PAR equations in predicting the 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Inner Mongolians population. A population-based, prospective cohort of 2,589 Mongolians were followed up from 2003 to 2012. Participants were categorized into 4 subgroups according to their 10-year CVD risks calculated using the China-PAR equations: < 5%, 5%-9.9%, 10%-19.9%, and ⪖ 20%. The China-PAR equations discriminated well with good C statistics (range, 0.76-0.86). The adjusted hazard ratios for CVD showed an increasing trend among the 4 subgroups (P for trend < 0.01). However, the China-PAR equations underestimated the 10-year CVD risk in Mongolians, and the calibration was unsatisfactory (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 = 19.98, P < 0.01 for men, χ2 = 46.58, P < 0.001 for women). The performance of the China-PAR equations warrants further validation in other ethnic groups in China.