During the last 40 years, the quantity and spatial patterns of farmland in Western Jilin have changed dramatically, which has had a great impact on soybean production potential. This study used one of the most advanced crop production potential models, the Global Agro-Ecological Zones model, to calculate the soybean production potential in Western Jilin based on meteorological, topography, soil and land use data, and analyzed the impact of farmland change on soybean production potential during 1975⁻2013. The main conclusions were the following: first, the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin in 2013 was 8.92 million tonnes, and the average soybean production potential was 1612 kg/ha. The production potential of eastern area was higher than the other areas of Western Jilin. Second, farmland change led to a growth of 3.30 million tonnes in soybean production potential between 1975 and 2000, and a decrease of 1.03 million tonnes between 2000 and 2013. Third, taking account of two situations of farmland change, the conversion between dryland and other categories, and the change of irrigation percentage led to the total soybean production potential in Western Jilin increased by 2.31 and only 0.28 million tonnes respectively between 1975 and 2000, and increased by 0.12 and 0.29 million tonnes respectively between 2000 and 2013. In general, the increase of soybean potential production was mainly due to grassland and woodland reclamation. The results of this study would be a good guideline for protecting safe baseline of farmland, managing land resources, and ensuring continuity and stability of soybean supply and food security.
Keywords: GAEZ; Western Jilin; farmland change; production potential; soybean.