Option pricing in the moderate deviations regime

Math Financ. 2018 Jul;28(3):962-988. doi: 10.1111/mafi.12156. Epub 2017 Aug 25.

Abstract

We consider call option prices close to expiry in diffusion models, in an asymptotic regime ("moderately out of the money") that interpolates between the well-studied cases of at-the-money and out-of-the-money regimes. First and higher order small-time moderate deviation estimates of call prices and implied volatilities are obtained. The expansions involve only simple expressions of the model parameters, and we show how to calculate them for generic local and stochastic volatility models. Some numerical computations for the Heston model illustrate the accuracy of our results.

Keywords: asymptotics; implied volatility; moderate deviations; option pricing.