A novel virus, tilapia lake virus (TiLV), has been identified as a key pathogen responsible for disease outbreak and mass mortality of farmed tilapia. We used a deterministic susceptible-infectious-mortality (SIM) model to derive key disease information appraised with published TiLV-induced cumulative mortality data. The relationship between tilapia mortality and TiLV exposure dosages was described by the Hill model. Furthermore, a disease control model was proposed to determine the status of controlled TiLV infection using a parsimonious control reproduction number (RC )-control line criterion. Results showed that the key disease determinants of transmission rate and basic reproduction number (R0 ) could be derived. The median R0 estimate was 2.59 in a cohabitation setting with 2.6 × 105 TCID50 fish-1 TiLV. The present RC -control model can be employed to determine whether TiLV containment is feasible in an outbreak farm by quantifying the current level of transmission. The SIM model can then be applied to predict what additional control is required to manage RC < 1. We offer valuable tools for aquaculture engineers and public health scientists the mechanistic-based assessment that allows a more rigorous evaluation of different control strategies to reduce waterborne diseases in aquaculture farming systems.
Keywords: disease transmission dynamics; modelling; tilapia; tilapia lake virus (TiLV).
© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.