Development and External Validation of an Early Prognostic Model for Survivors of Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest

Abstract

Introduction and objectives: Despite therapeutic hypothermia, unconscious survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest have a high risk of death or poor neurologic function. Our objective was to assess the usefulness of the variables obtained in the early moments after resuscitation in the prediction of 6-month prognosis.

Methods: A multicenter study was performed in 3 intensive cardiac care units. The analysis was done in 153 consecutive survivors of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest who underwent targeted temperature management between January 2007 and July 2015. Significant neurological sequelae at 6 months were considered to be present in patients with Cerebral Performance Categories Scale > 2. An external validation was performed with data from 91 patients admitted to a third hospital in the same time interval.

Results: Among the 244 analyzed patients (median age, 60 years; 77.1% male; 50.0% in the context of acute myocardial ischemia), 107 patients (43.8%) survived with good neurological status at 6 months. The prediction model included 5 variables (Shockable rhythm, Age, Lactate levels, Time Elapsed to return of spontaneous circulation, and Diabetes - SALTED) and provided an area under the curve of 0.90 (95%CI, 0.85-0.95). When external validation was performed, the predictive model showed a sensitivity of 73.5%, specificity of 78.6%, and area under the curve of 0.82 (95%CI, 0.73-0.91).

Conclusions: A predictive model that includes 5 clinical and easily accessible variables at admission can help to predict the probability of survival without major neurological damage following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Keywords: Control de temperatura; Modelo predictivo; Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest; Parada cardiaca extrahospitalaria; Predictive model; Targeted temperature management.